Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Covid-19 is a dry run for climate change lockdown

If you were wondering what the impact of climate change policies such as New Zealand's Zero Carbon Bill will have on the economy, the Covid-19 lockdown provides the perfect prototype. The Government's own estimates stated that passing the Zero Carbon Bill would reduce this country's GDP by up to 22% by 2050 ceteris paribus (e.g. see this document [PDF]), and the OECD recently estimated that the Covid-19 lockdown would reduce our GDP by around 30%, so the two events are roughly comparable in ultimate impact.

This comparison is not an idle one. Policy makers are already talking about using the Covid-19 lockdown as a prototype for zero carbon policies. The UN's Paris Accord organisation sees it as an “opportunity to...relaunch economies on low-emission, climate-resilient trajectories”. The UK's Climate Assembly sees it as a "test run" for the for potential climate change shifts they have been proposing. According to assembly representative Ibrahim Wali, the UK could achieve its zero carbon target if “people could stay home more, work remotely. Sometimes in life you just need a challenge to change the way you live and operate." In other words, we could save the world from climate change if we could just make the lockdown permanent. In France, the citizens' assembly set up by President Macron has similarly proposed closing down hypermarkets, prohibiting the sale of almost all existing cars and even banning advertising for consumer products (you would think the French in particular would be wary of citizens' assemblies, but apparently not).

They are right in the sense that the Covid-19 lockdowns closely model the impact of zero carbon policies. If you imagine that zero carbon policies mean you're just going to swap your car for a Tesla and that will be it, then you are mistaken. You will be much poorer, just as those who have already lost their jobs and businesses from the Covid-19 lockdowns are today. You won't have a private car. You won't be able to buy all of the food you currently consume and you certainly won't be dining out much. You won't be able to keep your house warm in the winter or cool in the summer. You won't have access to many of the drugs and medical treatment you may need to stay alive. And forget about being able to travel overseas - that privilege will only be for the ruling elite. So get used to it people, if you're in one of the many countries that have legislated for zero carbon you're going to be in permanent lockdown.

On the positive side, the much more immediate threat of Covid-19 has stymied efforts to create a new world order based on carbon zero policies. It also provides the opportunity for some real world climate change experiments - for example, the reduced air pollution may allow scientists to better understand the impact of atmospheric aerosols on climate change. In an even more interesting development, the lockdown may enable scientists to test one of the central hypotheses of anthropogenic global warming - that mankind's carbon emissions are responsible for almost all of the increase in atmospheric CO2 since pre-industrial times. If the hypothesis is true, the reduction in fossil fuel emissions during the lockdown should result in a corresponding reduction in the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2. Climate scientist Dr Roy Spencer is examining this impact in the atmospheric carbon levels recorded at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii. If there is no corresponding flattening of the CO2 curve, then it follows that factors other than mankind's carbon emissions are significant drivers of the increase in atmospheric CO2. That would mean all our efforts and policies to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels will be for nought.

[Hat-tip: Breaking Views @NZCPR for many of the above links]

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