Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety ~ Benjamin Franklin
I am concerned, but not surprised, by the reaction of many people to the Covid-19 lockdown - those who relish the fact that we are being confined to our homes by the government. For some, the New Zealand Government's comparatively low key enforcement of the lockdown is not enough, like this supposedly centre-right political commentator who wants it good and hard:
The mainstream media have rejoiced in the lockdown and seem to be promoting its extension through dubious surveys that say a majority of New Zealanders are happy for it to be extended. Of course, such survey results depend on the question - if people were asked whether they are happy for the lockdown to be extended if it cost more lives than it saved, it would produce the opposite result.
That is not a silly question. A British study by Bristol University Professor of Risk Management Philip Thomas concluded that if GDP per capita drops by more than about 6.5 percent for a significant period, more lives will be lost as a consequence of the lockdown than would be saved from Covid-19. This is unsurprising because the biggest factor in improved life expectancy in the modern world is economic prosperity. Reduce national income and more people die.
The response to Covid-19 in New Zealand, according to the Government's own estimates, is expected to reduce GDP by between 13% and 30% in the year to March 2021 in the absence of further economic stimulus. Therefore, we are well into the territory of the cost in lives lost from the lockdown being greater than those saved, even disregarding the negative impact on quality of life.
I used to be surprised by the collective self-loathing of many people in the Western world. Life is better in Western countries than anywhere else at any time in human existence by any measure, yet we are subject to a constant barrage of doom and gloom. In recent years this pessimism has been driven primarily by the narrative around climate change. The neo-Malthusian beliefs of the likes of Paul Ehrlich have become mainstream, with the dire prognostications of famine and disease due to overpopulation being replaced by equally alarming and unfounded predictions of calamity from global warming. On the positive side, Covid-19 has sidelined the constant scaremongering about climate change in the mainstream media. However, it has given those who pine for totalitarian solutions to every human problem a much more immediate threat to justify their misanthropic views.
At the heart of the totalitarian instinct is envy. It is the same instinct as H L Mencken identified when he was discussing Puritans: the haunting fear that someone, somewhere, may be happy - the same instinct that prompted a Radio New Zealand journalist to write this article about a lone surfer in Wellington's Lyall Bay. Such people would rather everyone is miserable than some be happier than others.
New Zealand should get out of its current level of lockdown mid-next-week. Certainly, going by our current Covid-19 infection rates there is no reason to continue the current universal house arrest. But people aren't rational and political decisions are often a reflection of the worst instincts of the population rather than the best. Let's hope that is not the case here.
That is not a silly question. A British study by Bristol University Professor of Risk Management Philip Thomas concluded that if GDP per capita drops by more than about 6.5 percent for a significant period, more lives will be lost as a consequence of the lockdown than would be saved from Covid-19. This is unsurprising because the biggest factor in improved life expectancy in the modern world is economic prosperity. Reduce national income and more people die.
The response to Covid-19 in New Zealand, according to the Government's own estimates, is expected to reduce GDP by between 13% and 30% in the year to March 2021 in the absence of further economic stimulus. Therefore, we are well into the territory of the cost in lives lost from the lockdown being greater than those saved, even disregarding the negative impact on quality of life.
I used to be surprised by the collective self-loathing of many people in the Western world. Life is better in Western countries than anywhere else at any time in human existence by any measure, yet we are subject to a constant barrage of doom and gloom. In recent years this pessimism has been driven primarily by the narrative around climate change. The neo-Malthusian beliefs of the likes of Paul Ehrlich have become mainstream, with the dire prognostications of famine and disease due to overpopulation being replaced by equally alarming and unfounded predictions of calamity from global warming. On the positive side, Covid-19 has sidelined the constant scaremongering about climate change in the mainstream media. However, it has given those who pine for totalitarian solutions to every human problem a much more immediate threat to justify their misanthropic views.
At the heart of the totalitarian instinct is envy. It is the same instinct as H L Mencken identified when he was discussing Puritans: the haunting fear that someone, somewhere, may be happy - the same instinct that prompted a Radio New Zealand journalist to write this article about a lone surfer in Wellington's Lyall Bay. Such people would rather everyone is miserable than some be happier than others.
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| New Zealand's Covid-19 active and total cases - April 16, 2020 |
New Zealand should get out of its current level of lockdown mid-next-week. Certainly, going by our current Covid-19 infection rates there is no reason to continue the current universal house arrest. But people aren't rational and political decisions are often a reflection of the worst instincts of the population rather than the best. Let's hope that is not the case here.
1 comment:
Well said. And THANK YOU for highlighting that irrational idiot from RNZ. My disbelief grew as I read his outraged opining. The guy has no ability to self reflect. There he is out running and getting apoplectic about a surfer. Neither activity should cause concern.
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