Sunday, May 3, 2020

Ignorance Upon Uncertainty

It has been more than a week since I last posted and since then in New Zealand we have come out of Covid-19 lockdown Level 4 into Level 3. I have no idea what these levels mean in terms of detailed rules and the authorities seem to be making it up as they go along, with the New Zealand Police refusing to release their own advice about the legality of their enforcement of the rules. This Kafkaesque uncertainty is the hallmark of authoritarian governments everywhere - if the rules are arbitrary, you can always be deemed to be in breach of them.

I have imagined that among the small blessings of the lockdown, an increased appreciation for the value of the producers in society might come out of this situation. People have become aware that they can't take it for granted that their supermarket has plenty of the right type of toilet paper or packaged flour. They have also become aware that the people who run the factories, who drive the trucks that deliver the goods, or who stack the shelves in the stores, should be considered "essential workers" as much as the doctors and the nurses tending the Covid-19 patients. But most don't understand the workings of the complex supply chains that ensure the shelves are full with what they need, or how the packages that they order on Amazon or AliExpress miraculously arrive at their door from the other side of the world. It would astound most people to know that there is no central organising authority that operates those supply chains, but rather they are a result of the collaborative efforts of a myriad of businesses, big and small, all around the world.

Even worse is the fact that most people (including many of our leaders) don't understand how the broader economy works, and they don't seem to appreciate the economic and social damage that is being done with the Covid-19 shutdown. They believe the government can flip a switch and turn the economy off or on at will and that all will soon be back to normal. Employers are being criticised in the media for laying off workers or even for closing down, as if the proprietors of such businesses are traitors acting against the national interest.

Our prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, showed her utter ignorance of how the economy works - or worse, a Marxist understanding of the economy - with her comments that the private sector should value their workforce in the same way government does. This is particularly galling to business owners who are struggling because of her lockdown policies (which, as I have written before, are only necessary because of Ardern's early inaction to prevent Covid-19 entering New Zealand) and in increasing numbers are losing their life's work. Does Ardern not realise that every cent government spends ultimately comes from a private business somewhere? She is criticising private business owners for not being as generous as she is with the money she seizes from them!

Ardern's criticism came after one of her colleagues, Deborah Russell, in an example of the most breathtaking left-wing arrogance, blamed businesses themselves for not being able to withstand the government-ordered lockdown. The left likes to go on about victim-blaming but in typically hypocritical fashion are happy to engage in a little of it themselves when the victims are business owners.

Meanwhile the deputy prime minister, Winston Peters, leader of the "far right" New Zealand First Party, wants to "put up the shutters" to foreign investment and trade, returning New Zealand to the "Polish shipyard" economy of his mentor Robert Muldoon's government during the 1970s and early 1980s. New Zealand at the time had a protected manufacturing sector that produced shoddy, expensive goods; draconian exchange controls that meant you had to apply to the Reserve Bank to get a strictly-limited amount of foreign currency before travelling overseas; and - Muldoon's coup de grace - wage and price controls that meant a corner store had to apply to the prime minister personally if it wanted to put up the price of tea. The economy was Soviet in all but name and it is to this state that Peters wants to return this country.

The problem is not just with central government. Local councils refuse to cut back their spending in the crisis and are intent on increasing their tax take from struggling businesses and home owners. They seem oblivious to the evidence that many New Zealanders are already struggling to meet their existing financial commitments.

All of the Covid-19 assistance programmes have involved greater spending by the state. The Government is acting like a benevolent rich uncle, doling out wage and salary assistance, business loans and increased welfare benefits as if New Zealanders won't realise they will have to pay back every cent. Perhaps the Government is right to count on the public's ignorance - it is apparent that many people do not realise governments have no source of funds other the taxes they extort from hardworking citizens. Even government borrowing is just a demand on future taxpayers.

I don't see any evidence that Covid-19 will result in an increased appreciation for the producers in society. I think we are fated to repeat the mistakes of the past, whereby governments and the public regard the producers as milch cows, to be exploited until they are empty vessels, and then to be blamed for not being productive enough. Perhaps if the economic downturn from the Covid-19 is long and deep enough, governments will realise at some point that they need to release their grip on the producers' throats. I fear that may take many years.

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