Covid-19 and the totalitarian instinct

Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety ~ Benjamin Franklin

I am concerned, but not surprised, by the reaction of many people to the Covid-19 lockdown - those who relish the fact that we are being confined to our homes by the government. For some, the New Zealand Government's comparatively low key enforcement of the lockdown is not enough, like this supposedly centre-right political commentator who wants it good and hard:

The mainstream media have rejoiced in the lockdown and seem to be promoting its extension through dubious surveys that say a majority of New Zealanders are happy for it to be extended. Of course, such survey results depend on the question - if people were asked whether they are happy for the lockdown to be extended if it cost more lives than it saved, it would produce the opposite result.

That is not a silly question. A British study by Bristol University Professor of Risk Management Philip Thomas concluded that if GDP per capita drops by more than about 6.5 percent for a significant period, more lives will be lost as a consequence of the lockdown than would be saved from Covid-19. This is unsurprising because the biggest factor in improved life expectancy in the modern world is economic prosperity. Reduce national income and more people die.

The response to Covid-19 in New Zealand, according to the Government's own estimates, is expected to reduce GDP by between 13% and 30% in the year to March 2021 in the absence of further economic stimulus. Therefore, we are well into the territory of the cost in lives lost from the lockdown being greater than those saved, even disregarding the negative impact on quality of life.

I used to be surprised by the collective self-loathing of many people in the Western world. Life is better in Western countries than anywhere else at any time in human existence by any measure, yet we are subject to a constant barrage of doom and gloom. In recent years this pessimism has been driven primarily by the narrative around climate change. The neo-Malthusian beliefs of the likes of Paul Ehrlich have become mainstream, with the dire prognostications of famine and disease due to overpopulation being replaced by equally alarming and unfounded predictions of calamity from global warming. On the positive side, Covid-19 has sidelined the constant scaremongering about climate change in the mainstream media. However, it has given those who pine for totalitarian solutions to every human problem a much more immediate threat to justify their misanthropic views.

At the heart of the totalitarian instinct is envy. It is the same instinct as H L Mencken identified when he was discussing Puritans: the haunting fear that someone, somewhere, may be happy - the same instinct that prompted a Radio New Zealand journalist to write this article about a lone surfer in Wellington's Lyall Bay. Such people would rather everyone is miserable than some be happier than others.

New Zealand's Covid-19 active and total cases - April 16, 2020

New Zealand should get out of its current level of lockdown mid-next-week.   Certainly, going by our current Covid-19 infection rates there is no reason to continue the current universal house arrest. But people aren't rational and political decisions are often a reflection of the worst instincts of the population rather than the best. Let's hope that is not the case here.

The World is a Different Place Today

I’m writing this on the evening of the first full day of the Covid-19 “lock down” here in New Zealand.

The world is a different place today than it was three months ago. The virus has changed everything. The fact that we are living through history was brought home to me when I was talking to my elderly mother about the closure of schools and businesses, and she told me about the similar response to the polio outbreak when she was a child. I realised that schoolchildren today, as they were back then, will be known as the kids that lived through the pandemic.

We thought 9/11 was significant, but really its effects were minor. Of course, for those in the Twin Towers or on one of those airplanes on that day in 2001, or even for the many US service men and women who went to fight in Afghanistan and Iraq as a result of the terrorist attacks, the impact was huge. But for the rest of us the effects of those events were mostly limited to extra security checks at airports and in some public buildings. The current crisis is different – it affects us all profoundly and intimately.

The first day has been fine. I think we all feel excited at these momentous events that have overtaken us, tinged with a little worry about how long it will last and who might succumb to the virus. The worst time will be later, when the excitement wears off along with our tolerance for the annoying habits of those we are forced to spend every waking hour with for the next month. Even the most solid relationships will be tested.

I am fortunate. My home is spacious and is surrounded by the “green belt” of trees and bush,  interspersed with hiking trails and fields, so I can go for a long walk and barely cross paths with another human being. My family and I have almost everything we need right here and so long as we can stock up every week or two with essential supplies, we can continue to live in considerable comfort. I have watched the apartment dwellers in European and Asian cities, singing from their balconies and otherwise putting on a brave face in their cramped spaces, and I know their confinement is so much worse than mine.

There will be moments when fear will eat away at our resilient spirits. Concern about getting the virus itself is only part of it. The loss of economic and social freedom frightens everyone. We have all been made dependent on our governments, no matter how self-sufficient we were before. I am sure that even the most ardent big-state supporters don’t completely trust the government with the almost unlimited powers it has assumed to deal with this crisis. I watched the New Zealand police commissioner earlier today talking about how he will enforce the lock down, and he wasn’t shy about threatening the use of force against those who break the curfew. I am sure the actions of the police here in New Zealand will be measured, but now we all have a taste of what it must have been like to live under a totalitarian regime such as Soviet Communism.

Our cage might be gilded, but it is still a cage.